Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 8 to 9 3/4 cents lower in the front months on Tuesday. Moderation in the US weather forecasts and a bump in condition ratings is giving the excuse for profit taking. NASS reported that 17% of the US corn crop was silking as of July 14, vs. the 5-year average of 42%. Of the 18 reported states, just PA and TX were ahead of normal. USDA also reported conditions up 1% at 58% gd/ex, which converts to a 1-point rise on the Brugler500 index to 353. On the week, IL was 10 points higher, with MO up 8 and OH 5 points higher. IN and IA were steady, with MN 5 points lower and NE down 2. INTL FCStone estimates Brazil corn production at 99.7 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from their previous number.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.31 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.37 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.44 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.47 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are down 16 to 17 points in the nearby contracts. August soybean meal is down $3.80/ton, with soy oil 32 points lower. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated 95% of the crop emerged, with 22% in the blooming stage (49% average). MS was the only state to be reported at faster than normal for blooming pace. Crop conditions featured a 1% improvement to 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up 2 points to 347. Last week saw IL and MO up 5 points, with OH 6 higher. IA was down 1, with MN 4 lower and NE deteriorating 6 points. Forecasts shows rainfall expected in northern parts of the Corn Belt and into the ECB over the next week.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.85 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.91 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.03, down 17 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.15 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $307.80, down $3.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.96, down $0.32

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are down 1 to 3 cents in most contracts on Tuesday, pulled down by corn and soybeans. Monday afternoon NASS reported that 57% of the winter wheat crop was harvested, 14% below the average pace. The Northern Plains are still lagging considerably, with KS now 81% harvested and OK and TX finishing up. Spring wheat was 78% headed, with conditions down 2% to 76% gd/ex and 1 point lower on the Brugler500 to 382. By state ID was the only one to show deterioration, with MN up 1, SD 6 points higher, and ND unch. Taiwan importers issued a tender to buy 90,650 MT of US wheat on Tuesday, with the venter to close 7/23.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.05, down 2 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.46 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.31, down 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down 45 to 62.5 cents on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are 7.5 to 55 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 62 cents @ $140.46 on July 12. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 64 cents at $213.91 with Select boxes $1.09 higher @ $190.30. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 117,000 head for Monday. That was 3,000 head below the previous week and 1,000 larger than the same week last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.050, down $0.450,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.200, down $0.575,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.525, down $0.575,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.575, down $0.075

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.200, down $0.400

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.400, down $0.575

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are mostly 57.5 cents to $1.05 higher at midday, with nearby Aug down 95 cents. China's hog herd is officially 15% smaller, although other Chinese data suggests a much larger decline from ASF. The CME Lean Hog Index was UNCH from the previous day on July 12 @ $70.73. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.86 in the Tuesday AM report at $74.76. The butt was the only primal reported lower. The national average base hog price was down $1.10 at $67.51. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday was 410,000 head. That was down 69,000 head from last week due to plant down time and 19,000 head below the same week last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $79.150, down $0.950,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $74.475, up $0.575

DEC 19 Hogs are at $72.800, up $1.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are showing 73 to 132 point losses in most contracts on Tuesday. After the close, NASS showed 60% of the US cotton crop was squared (69% avg) and 20% of the acres were setting bolls (25% avg) as of Sunday. TX had 12% of their crop setting bolls, 6% behind normal, with GA 8% faster than normal at 45%. Condition ratings were up 2% to 56% gd/ex and saw a 7 point jump on the Brugler500 index at 347. Any damage from TS Barry is likely to show up in next week’s report due to the timing as LA was 5 points better on Monday. MO and TN were the only states with lower conditions, as TX was up 13 points and MS was 16 higher. The Cotlook A index for July 15 was down 40 points from the previous day at 73.65 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 58.05 cents/lb through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.38, down 132 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 62.88, down 107 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.12, down 88 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.07, down 73 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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